Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term

Donald Trump shall be president of the United States at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on December 31, 2019. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. There are also markets that simply stipulate when Trump will leave office. Odds on Trump Completing His First Term. Paddy Power is paying 11/10 on a wager that Trump will cease to be the President in 2020 or later. In other words, this is a bet that Trump will complete his first term.

It happened, folks.

Despite the fact that he lost the popular vote (for those of you who slept through civics class, that means more voters cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton), Donald Trump will be our next president.

As a result of the shocking outcome of yesterday's election, many questions loom large today:

Is he really going to try and make Mexico pay for a border wall?

Is the president actually going to ban people from entering the country based on their religious affiliations?

Should millions of Americans be afraid that the person who's soon to be the most powerful man in the country will discriminate against them on the basis of their race, gender, or spiritual beliefs?

The answers: no; it's an incredibly sad possibility; and it's a tragic certainty.

Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term

One of the questions that has no clear answer, however, is:

Does Donald Trump really even want to be president?

After all, it's impossible to count the number of times he seemed to self-sabotage over the course of his 17-month campaign.

His behavior was so erratic, his ground game so non-existent that some even speculated he was participating in a conspiratorial effort to get Hillary Clinton elected.

Trump wanting the attention that comes with running for president but not wanting to do the work that's involved in occupying the highest office in the land has even been a running joke on South Park throughout the show's entire twentieth season.

(Showrunners Trey Parker and Matt Stone are reportedly frantically re-writing tonight's episode, as many of the jokes had centered around Hillary winning the election.)

Insiders have claimed that Mike Pence and other GOP heavyweights (must ... resist ... Chris Christie joke) who were vetted to be Trump's running mate were promised that they would serve as 'the most powerful vice president in American history.'

The reason for that, of course, being that Trump has no desire to actually govern.

It's all enough to make you wonder if the man will even last four years in the Oval Office.

There's a very real possibility that he'll just step down the first time he gets a call from the King of Jordan and dejectedly hangs up upon realizing it's not Phil Jackson.

And on top of the fact that Trump is the first president to give us reason to believe he doesn't actually want the job (with the possible exception of Franklin Pierce. That drunk-ass had no f-cks to give.), he's also carrying more legal baggage into the White House than any of his predecessors.

On top of a pending fraud lawsuit, the real-estate-mogul-turned-demagogue has been involved in more than 3,500 legal actions, and the number of women who accused Trump of sexual assault has now risen to twelve.

He's told reporters that as commander-in-chief, he plans to order the military to target families of suspected terrorists and violate the Geneva Convention by torturing prisoners.

If he goes through with that our president will, objectively, be a war criminal.

In short, though impeachment is a rarely-used and highly disruptive tactic, Trump's opponents have plenty to work with already, and he's still more than two months away from his inauguration.

As difficult as it may be, all Americans should wish Trump luck and hope for the best from his time in office.

Odds of trump lasting a full term 2020

Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term Abortions

Of course, we doubt many tears would be shed if his time in office proved to be unexpectedly brief...

Lasting

On Wednesday, Politicoreported that former Vice President Joe Biden has suggested to aides that he intends to serve only one term if he wins the 2020 presidential election. “According to four people who regularly talk to Biden,” Politico’s Ryan Lizza wrote, “all of whom asked for anonymity to discuss internal campaign matters, it is virtually inconceivable that he will run for reelection in 2024, when he would be the first octogenarian president.” The idea is easy to understand from Biden’s perspective. The promise of a single term could, in theory, encourage some Democrats who would prefer a female, minority, and/or younger candidate to back him as the most electable choice against Trump, safe in the knowledge that he would soon be followed by a more compelling president and a more diverse administration.

Trump

Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term 2020

“This makes Biden a good transition figure,” one of the anonymous advisers told Lizza. “I’d love to have an election this year for the next generation of leaders, but if I have to wait four years [in order to] get rid of Trump, I’m willing to do it.” In an attempt to bring clarity to Biden’s intentions this afternoon, Delaware Senator Chris Coons told reporters that Biden would be open to serving a second term, “if necessary.”

It’s never noted by the press that Biden, on a promise-to-accomplishment basis, would be one of the most efficient presidents in American history.

Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term Life Insurance

This was an odd statement. It seems likely that there will remain problems with American society for a Democratic president to solve at the end of a Biden term. Biden is evidently ambivalent about continuing to work on them beyond an initial four years in office. This makes sense if one understands the central project of the Joe Biden campaign to be making Joe Biden the president or, more charitably, denying Donald Trump a second term. This has been the clear focus of Biden’s bid from the beginning—defeating Trump is the objective he talks the most about and a major reason why so many Democrats, terrified by the possibility of Trump’s reelection, have chosen to back him despite a wide-open field of alternatives and the controversies that have beset his candidacy. It’s never noted by the press that Biden, on a promise-to-accomplishment basis, would be one of the most efficient presidents in American history. The very act of winning would fulfill the most solemn vow he has made to the American people.

Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term President

Given this, it’s not clear why, as the unnamed adviser argued to Lizza, the Democratic Party should wait a full four years for the transition Biden reportedly envisions to take place. If Biden is indifferent about personally seeing any particular policy fight through beyond his first term, why—having safely defeated Trump and succeeded in the main purpose of his presidency the moment he is sworn in—shouldn’t he begin the handover he recognizes as necessary immediately? Why shouldn’t a new Democratic administration—diverse, young, and dynamic—replace him within two years, a year, a month, or a week of taking office? With the dreaded 2020 election finally in the rearview mirror, why shouldn’t Biden simply turn the reins over the very day he’s inaugurated?

If Politico’s report is true, Biden is correct to support giving the presidency to a new generation of Democrats as soon as possible after Trump has been ousted. This is why, if elected and sworn in as president at noon on January 20, 2021, Joe Biden should resign by no later than 12:05 p.m., transferring the presidency to whichever female, minority, and/or younger vice president he has chosen to succeed him. In those five minutes, Joe Biden will have fully accomplished the primary political goals preoccupying so many Democrats and media elites—kicking Trump out and ensuring a demographic transition in the White House. A truly historic presidency in about the time it takes to prepare a microwaved meal. His successor will have much to take on: an economy that has failed millions of Americans and enriched a lucky few, a party that will continue its assault on democratic values and the right to vote long after Trump leaves office, a climate crisis that threatens to destroy civilization as we know it, and so on. But we should take solace in the fact that Biden’s brief tenure would at least square away the concerns now defining the Democratic primary once and for all.

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