Do you bet a team will win more than the 9 games they’re projected to win or under?

This article will answer that question. It will lay out examples you need to consider making educated bets on teams’ projected win totals so when you wager win totals, you will increase your odds of winning.

The NFL has wrapped up the 2020 regular season. The playoff field is set and teams have clinched their over or under (or push) on sportsbook preseason win totals. Week by week, we tracked which teams officially met or surpassed preseason projected win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook, and which teams came up short. Once again, the over/unders for all 32 teams are tricky to navigate going into the 2019 season. First, below are all of those over/under win totals for NFL teams in 2019, courtesy of BetOnline.ag. 2020 NFL Win Totals. Get the best win total price for every team with our NFL futures tool, or click the links below if you’re in a legal betting state. The book to the left has the best price if you want to bet the over; the book to the right has the best price if you want to bet the under. Using win totals set by bookmaker William Hill, we can also turn an eye toward gambling by analyzing each team's over/under betting lines. Using the win totals, William Hill gives the Atlanta. NFL season win totals are similar to a traditional OVER/UNDER bet except instead of betting on a single game, you’re betting on all 16 of them at once. For instance, a traditional totals bet involves you deciding if the total number of points scored by both teams will go OVER or UNDER the oddsmaker’s set number.

This article gives you a blueprint and the examples are not telling you who to bet on and who to stay away from. Instead, it will give you a blueprint to research specific factors that will affect a team’s win-loss record.

Nothing is set in the NFL and even the most educated bettor can’t predict a perfect over-under on win totals. However, you can put yourself in the best position to win such bets if you know what to do.

Let’s explore 5 factors to consider when betting on NFL win totals.

1- Strength of Schedule

The 1st factor is the most important. Analyze strength of schedule before you place a bet on either an over or under.

If a team projects somewhere in the 9-10 win column but they’re playing in a weak division plus the AFC and NFC division they’re slated to play is also weak…

They will probably win more than their allotted number of games.

You can say the same for teams slated to win that same number but are playing in the league’s toughest division and are playing a tougher AFC or NFC division.

In that case, you want to bet the under.

Strength of schedule is the overall indicator whether to bet the over or the under on projected win totals.

But there are other factors to consider that can show otherwise. I’m laying out 3 factors to consider before ending with a final factor you must consider.

2- Strength of Division

This one’s important. Suppose there are 3 solid teams playing in the same division and it has happened in the past.

There have been times the worst record in a division is 7-9, meaning all 4 teams can win. It also means all 4 teams can fall short of their odds.

Yes, 1 or 2 of those teams might reach and exceed their projected win total. It also means 1 or 2 won’t.

Instead, focus on teams whose divisions possess a larger discrepancy of team talent. If a rebuilding team or 2 are in the same division along with an above-average team, this could be a potential home run.

Especially if a team you’re targeting appears to have middle of the road talent. It’s likely this team will exceed their projected win total since 2 teams they’re playing will not win many games.

There are no guarantees, but a team like the Buffalo Bills are a good example of this in 2020. Per CBS sports, they’re projected to win 9 games. The New England Patriots are also sitting at 9.

The Bills, as evidenced in 2019, are on the rise.

They also traded for one of the better receivers in the game in Stefon Diggs. Their defense was phenomenal in 2019. One of the best in the league.

2 weak teams in the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Neither figure to do much unless the Football Gods have a miracle up their sleeves.

Let’s look at the Patriots. Right now their potential quarterbacks are Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham. A journeyman and a 2nd-year player drafted on the last day of the draft. Lightning doesn’t strike twice often in the NFL if you know where I’m going with Stidham.

That said, the Bills would be great to bet an over and the Patriots would be safe to bet the under.

Yes, Bill Belichick is still in New England.

But it’s hard for even a good team to win without a decent quarterback. Just ask Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I’m not telling you what to do and who to bet on. I’m just laying out examples clarifying what I mean here and nothing more.

3- Offseason Roster Moves

Did teams you’re targeting to wager win totals on receive offseason makeovers?

If so, stop.

Many of these teams might look good on paper, but in reality, you’ll rarely see them break out. It happens, but most of the time these are oddsmaker traps.

Teams who may have signed a marquee quarterback, but have little more to work with are examples.

If a team overhauled their roster and most of the team hasn’t experienced playing together, it’s also a red flag.

Look for teams who’ve made roster moves to fill missing gaps. Too often, novice NFL gamblers will wager teams who made moves equivalent to what’s seen in Madden Franchise mode with the salary cap turned off.

This is real life, not a video game. Players need time to mesh and new rookies need time to get used to the NFL game. Some rookies adapt faster than others but they all go through growing pains.

Keep away from teams who are rebuilding and even if they nabbed a prize free agent or two, don’t be tempted. Teams like this might also make a blockbuster trade in the draft or before it. Again, stay away.

A good way to increase your odds of winning an over is to look for teams that are one or two pieces away.

Teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, who signed Tom Brady, are a good example. The Buccaneers already have one of the best receiving duos in football and now they added an accomplished quarterback.

They have a solid defense, ranking 15th in yards allowed in 2019. They held onto a lot of players.

They also have to compete with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South and they play Green Bay and Minnesota, 2 more playoff teams from the year before.

Add in the Super Bowl 54 champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and Tampa’s path isn’t the easiest.

The Bucs went 7-9 last season with Jameis Winston, who proved to be a turnover machine and constantly gave opponents a short field. They put up a lot of points with Winston, and now they have a quarterback who takes care of the ball.

Online Oddsmakers will have the Buccaneers ranked higher than in 2019. They’re also likely to have Green Bay and New Orleans, the latter being a division rival, with a higher win total.

CBS sports have 8 NFC teams chosen to win more than the Buccaneers, who are sitting at 9 as I write this. It’s what I mean when I say the Buccaneers are safer picks for an over.

4- Roster Stability

News recently broke that the New England Patriots traded longtime tight-end who took 2019 off to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reunite with Tom Brady. Oddsmakers are upping Tampa’s win total as I write this.

Gronkowski and Brady won 3 Super Bowls together with the Patriots, and Gronkowski will be 31 when the 2020 season begins.

Anyone who wagers money on NFL win totals in 2020 will take a hard look at Tampa. The Bucs also have arguably the best pair of receivers in football in Curtis Godwin and Mike Evans.

They have a fair tight-end in O. J. Howard to team with Gronkowski.

Looking at Tampa’s roster outside Brady and Gronkowski, it’s relatively stable. There are a lot of names from the last 2 seasons who are still with the team today. Now, they inserted a quarterback who doesn’t specialize in throwing the ball to the other team 30 times a season.

They also have a proven winner with Bruce Arians at head coach. This is a primary example of a team with a solid, stable roster who added through the draft and free agency. The Bucs will be a smart pick for an over.

Anyone dissecting Cleveland’s roster last offseason should’ve known. They had a rookie head coach in Freddie Kitchens. They had 2 new starters in the defensive backfield. They traded for a player whose brand is larger than the city of Cleveland in Odell Beckham Jr.

Also, the Browns had discipline problems dating back to the preseason when sporting outlets reported the number of fights the team started in joint practices with the Colts.

The smart gambler would’ve stayed away from them.

Baker Mayfield jawed too often with the media. Myles Garrett missed the last 6 games after getting suspended for swinging a helmet at Steelers’ quarterback Mason Rudolph. Garrett was flagged earlier in the season for throwing an open-handed punch at Delanie Walker.

Beckham continually drew attention to himself on things that weren’t football-related.

Again, any gambler who conducted research would’ve stayed away from the Browns.

The better bet for an over would’ve been the 14-2 Ravens, who hardly any oddsmaker had winning the AFC North prior to the 2019 preseason. Despite far more roster and coaching stability than Cleveland. Sure, they had a new quarterback, but most everything else was intact.

Especially the system the team had in place.

Don’t worry so much about who’s on the roster. It could be a roster full of Pro Bowl players but if they haven’t played together, they’re not a good wager. Even if oddsmakers say differently.

5- Research Divisions Other than Your Favorite Team’s

I don’t care how much you say you won’t, you will always overrate your favorite team. And you will always underrate their division rivals. My recommendation is that you wager over-under win totals on the opposite conference.

Even if oddsmakers predict your favorite team will have lower win totals and it’s easier for them to overcome odds.

Don’t bet on them. Go to the other conference and wager them.

Conclusion

It seems like a lot, but it isn’t. If you follow the NFL year-round, pay attention to the league’s scheduling formula, and note who’s playing who, you will bet well predicting win totals.

And never bet the over if a team merely signed marquee players and drafted a few studs who never played on the same team.

There’s a lot that goes into increasing your odds on win totals and the best time to think about who you’re betting on is after the league schedule is generated in the spring, following the NFL Draft.

One of the most popular types of wagers you can make in football is betting on totals – the over or under.

You can place them at all of the top online sportsbooks: (my reviews)

• – Bovada
• – Bet Online
• – Bet 365 (not open to U.S. bettors)
• – My Bookie
• – Intertops
• – Bookmaker

These bets are simple and quick to make, and a lot of fun. Even better, you don’t have to know much about the sport you’re betting on to have a fair chance of winning.

Having said that, there’s an art to making smart over/under bets. This guide provides a crash course. You’ll learn how totals betting works in the NFL, how the numbers are chosen by bookmakers, and how to use the point spread along with totals to improve your odds of winning.

In short, you’ll learn everything you need to know to place intelligent, informed over/under football bets at your favorite sportsbooks.

A Guide to How Football Over/Under Betting Works

You’ve no doubt seen how the spread, or moneyline, works in sports betting. It can seem confusing if you’re just getting started. The good news about totals betting is that it’s much simpler.

Here’s how it works:

As its name implies, you’ll be working with game totals. Oddsmakers forecast the cumulative points that’ll be scored by both teams in a given game.

It’s up to you to predict whether the actual number of points scored will end up over or under the forecast number.

It’s easy to know whether you’ve won or lost. Simply compare the cumulative points scored during a game against the over/under (O/U) in light of which side you bet on.

It’s sometimes possible to know whether you’ve won before a game even ends. For example, suppose you bet the over on a game, and the game turns into a shooting match. The teams’ combined points might outstrip bookmakers’ forecasted total with time remaining in the 4th quarter.

Why Over/Under NFL Betting Is So Popular

Totals betting is drop-dead easy. That alone appeals to a lot of sports bettors.

Some folks grow weary of the work involved with spread betting and are attracted to the simplicity of totals betting. Others are new to sports betting; they’re drawn to over/under types of bets because it’s a less complicated entry point.

Another reason over/under betting is popular in football is because you’re not forced to choose a team. In fact, you couldn’t care less which team wins. The only thing you’re interested in is the sum of the teams’ points, and whether that sum is consistent with your bet.

Yet another advantage is that bettors aren’t required to know anything about the individual players to make smart wagers. They don’t need to spend their nights and weekends analyzing player matchups and crunching data.

You now know why so many sports bettors love betting on the over/under in the NFL. Let’s take a look at how bookmakers’ choose the totals.

How NFL Sports Betting Totals Are Calculated

I mentioned above that you don’t need to do a ton of research or analysis to get started with totals betting. The reason is because bookmakers do it for you. During the process of setting the O/U, they consider the following factors, from both a team and player perspective:

• history during previous meetings
• down conversions
• field goal percentages
• rushing yards
• completions and interceptions

There’s a lot more to it, but that gives you an idea about the level of research that goes into choosing totals.

Like setting point spreads, bookmakers have to get the numbers right to ensure they don’t lose their shirts. They have considerable skin in the game. It’s in their interest to calculate totals that draw an equal number of bettors to both sides of the forecast totals.

Remember, bookmakers make their money on commissions, not game outcomes.

What Are Typical Payouts For NFL Over/Under Bets?

Straight over/under bets pay out close to even money. For example, if you wager $20 on the over for a game between the Steelers and Ravens, and their cumulative points exceed the forecast, you can expect to receive $40 less the vig. Likewise if you bet the under and the teams’ cumulative points fall below the forecast.

An over/under will sometimes come with odds. These odds complicate payout scenarios.

For example, suppose bookmakers forecast a cumulative score of 41 for an upcoming Steelers vs. Ravens game. They set the O/U at 41.5 to avoid a push (you can’t score a half-point in football). And based on an analysis of both teams, they set the odds at -115/+110.

Here’s how the bet would be presented:

Steelers 41.5 o -115
Ravens 41.5 u +110

Because of the odds, you wouldn’t make even money on this bet. You’d need to wager $115 to win $100 on the over. Meanwhile, you’d only need to wager $100 to win $110 on the under.

Totals are often adjusted when bets become lopsided. As mentioned earlier, bookmakers prefer an evenly-balanced bet so they can count on making a profit from the commissions. Sometimes, however, bookmakers leave the totals unadjusted, preferring instead to apply odds that produce the same effect (rebalance the two sides).

Forecasting NFL Totals Ain’t An Exact Science

Predicting accurate over/unders in football is based on team and player history. The problem is, there’s a limited number of games per season. It’s not like baseball or basketball where teams play several times a week.

That’s important to note because it means there’s a greater degree of uncertainty in NFL totals betting. As carefully as bookmakers set and adjust their forecasts, there’s often considerable variance between the cumulative points scored during games and the forecasted numbers. The limited number of games also makes it more difficult to accurately handicap the totals with odds.

This spells opportunity for the savvy over/under bettor!

Here’s a quick tip you can take advantage of starting today: the most common totals for NFL games are 37, 44, 41, 43, 51, 40, and 47. Can you think of a way to use this information to improve your odds?

For example, suppose you’re trying to decide between the over and under on a game with a forecast total of 37.5. While some games DO end with totals below 37, it doesn’t happen very often. Cumulative game scores usually end up higher. That means you should think twice before betting the under.

How To Use The Point Spread When Betting On NFL Totals

If a point spread is listed with a total, you can often use it to gain a slight advantage.

Here’s how:

1. Divide the point spread by two.
2. Divide the over/under by two.
3. Add half the point spread and half the O/U to arrive at the favored team’s projected points.
4. Subtract half the point spread from half the O/U to arrive at the underdog’s projected points.
5. Add the results.

That’ll get you very close to Vegas predictions. You can then use that number to shop totals at various sportsbooks. You may find that a particular bookmaker’s forecast is off.

Let’s create a hypothetical Steelers vs.Ravens game as an example, assuming the following over/under and point spread:

Steelers 41.5 o -10
Ravens 41.5 u +10

The Steelers are the favored team while the Ravens are the underdog.

1. Divide the point spread by two. 10 / 2 equals 5.
2. Divide the over/under by two. 41.5 / 2 equals 20.75.
3. 20.75 plus 5 equals 25.75. This is the projected number of points for the Steelers.
4. 20.75 minus 5 equals 15.75. This is the projected number of points for the Ravens.
5. 25.75 plus 15.75 equals 41.5.

Vegas predicts 41.5 points for this hypothetical game. So, we’re on target.

You’d then visit several sportsbooks to look for a total that varies from the number we calculated (41.5). For example, a sports betting site might list the Steelers vs. Ravens over/under at 39.5 (possibly in an attempt to balance out the two sides of the wager).

Vegas Over Under Win Totals Nfl

Betting the over in this scenario is likely to improve your chances of winning.

Over Under Win Totals Nfl

How Overtime Affects The Over/Under

If a game goes into overtime, any points scored during OT are included in the total. That can only be good news if you bet the over. It’s not so great if you bet the under.

Let’s use our hypothetical Steelers/Ravens game as an example. Suppose the 4th quarter ends as follows:

Steelers – 20
Ravens – 20

Given the tie, both teams will face off in sudden death (overtime). The first team to score wins.

Let’s say you had bet the under on 41.5. Overtime is bad news for you. Any points scored during sudden death will push the cumulative score (currently 40) above 41.5, costing you the wager.

But let’s say you had bet the over. In that case, overtime is great news for you. Any scoring event will cause the cumulative score to exceed 41.5, guaranteeing you a payout.

Bottom line: points scored during overtime count. Keep in mind, it’s not uncommon for NFL games to come within tying distance in the 4th quarter.

Nfl Over Under Win Totals Bovada

Let’s wrap things up with a few tips on making smart over/under football wagers.

5 Quick Tips For Making Winning Bets On NFL Totals

The following tips won’t guarantee you’ll win your totals bets. No one can make that promise. But they’ll help you avoid making terrible bets and thereby improve your overall odds.

1. Shop For The Best Over/Unders

Different sports betting sites often carry different totals. That often stems from the level of action on both sides of the bet. Remember, the totals are sometimes adjusted when the two sides fall out of balance. It pays to check several sites before deciding where to place your bet.

2. Check Vegas’s Predictions

Most of the time, you’ll find that sportsbooks follow Vegas pretty closely in setting totals. But there are times when the numbers chosen by bookmakers vary from those forecasted by Vegas.

Trust the oddsmakers in Vegas. They have a lot to lose if they make bad predictions.

Trust the oddsmakers in Vegas. They lose big when they give bad odds!

3. Look For Opportunities In Number Adjustments

Recall from earlier that bookmakers prefer an even number of bettors on both sides of a total. But that rarely happens naturally. In most cases, the sides become lopsided as bets are placed. Bookmakers must either adjust the over/under or apply odds to re balance things.

There’s opportunity in over/under adjustments. For example, if a bookmaker lowers the total to draw more people to the over side of the bet, consider taking advantage of the improved odds.

4. Forget About Last Week

An NFL team’s performance last week will have minimal influence on their performance this week. Just because the Giants scored 50 points last week doesn’t mean they’ll do it again tonight.

Reviewing seasonal performance is important because it indicates a trend. By contrast, last week’s performance could easily be an aberration. It can’t be counted upon.

5. Get Familiar With Each Team’s Style

Some teams are more aggressive than others. They don’t merely want to win. They want to win by a huge margin. These teams usually have great passing games as they attempt to log TD after TD.

Other teams are more conservative. They want to win without taking unnecessary risks. Oftentimes, this means they forego high risk scoring opportunities for a more moderate approach.

It’s worth identifying which teams and coaches use an aggressive playbook and which use a conservative playbook. A conservative approach usually means fewer points scored, which will affect your over/under bets.

Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2021

If you’ve never taken part in NFL totals betting, here’s what I recommend…

Visit a few of the top-rated sportsbooks on this list. Take a look at the over/unders for upcoming games. Choose the best ones in light of the totals predicted by Vegas oddsmakers. Then, put a little cash at risk and enjoy watching the games. It’s one of the simplest and quickest ways to get started in sports betting online.

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Over Under Win Totals Nfl

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